Analysis: A Post-Milone Trade Wrap-up

Who did the Braves trade for?

On Sunday, August 30th, the Atlanta Braves completed a trade with the Baltimore Orioles to acquire left-handed starting pitcher Tommy Milone in exchange for two minor-league players to be named later that are not in the 60-man player pool.

While not an exciting trade, it does fill a significant need at a low cost. Milone, a free agent after the season, is due to make less than $150K for the remainder of 2020.

Why did the Braves trade for Tommy Milone?

How bad has the starting pitching outside of Max Fried and Ian Anderson been? Check out these numbers:

0-10, 7.10 ERA, 1.644 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, -0.8 fWAR. All of these numbers have been compiled while averaging just 3.75 innings per start.

Milone, at the very least, can improve on these disastrous numbers. He has completed at least five innings in four out of his six starts, with his opening day start of three innings being an exception (Yes, he was the Orioles’ opening day starter).

Milone relies on an arsenal of mainly a four-seam fastball and changeup, an occasional slider, and rarely-used curveballs and sinkers. He’s the definition of a soft-tossing lefty (2% percentile of velocity this season, 1% last year), but manages to mix things up to have the highest K rate of his career (9.5 per nine) while not walking anyone (1.2 per nine) and sporting a 37.5% O-Swing% (9th in MLB among SPs with at least 25 IP).

Danger signs to look out for include a .300/.326/.522 line against right-handed hitters this season and an .852 OPS/7.02 FIP/5.88 xFIP the third time through the order. In 32 starts dating back to 2016, Milone has pitched into the seventh inning just twice.

What can the Braves expect from Tommy Milone?

Milone is a back-end starting pitcher that should be limited to 5-6 innings, roughly twice through the batting order. If manager Brian Snitker is able to stick to that plan, Milone can be an acceptable 4th/5th starter that can help the Braves get to the postseason without gutting the bullpen by October.

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