Monday afternoon, a tweet from ESPN’s Jeff Passen heralded a pivotal moment in the history of the Braves franchise.
Oakland will receive OF Cristian Pache, C Shea Langeliers, SP Ryan Cusick and SP Joey Estes, sources tell ESPN. Massive haul for Matt Olson, the Braves’ new first baseman.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 14, 2022
What was not stated in the tweet and not stated outright in the subsequent press conference with Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos due to free agency rules is the upshot of this move: Freddie Freeman, the greatest first baseman in the history of the franchise, will not be returning to the Atlanta Braves. But before we get to that seismic shift, let’s look at the trade itself.
Incoming: Matt Olson
Taking everything else out of the equation, bringing Matt Olson into the organization is a huge move for Atlanta.
Since he was made Oakland’s everyday first baseman in 2018, Olson has been the fourth-most valuable player at the position in baseball behind only Freeman, St. Louis’s Paul Goldschmidt, and Los Angeles’s Max Muncy per FanGraphs’s version of WAR. In traditional stats, his 118 home runs in that span ties Muncy for the most, and his 328 RBI are behind only Freeman and the White Sox’s Jose Abreau. By Statcast’s Outs Above Average statistic, Olson has been the third best defensive first baseman with 12 outs-above-average in that time frame, behind only Arizona’s Christian Walker and Anthony Rizzo. To back up his defensive prowess, Olson can point to his two Gold Glove Awards.
Last season was his best ever, chalking up 5.0 WAR, second in baseball at the position behind only AL MVP Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and half a win ahead over fifth-place Freddie Freeman. Olson earned his first All-Star nod in 2021 and finished 8th in the AL MVP race himself (Freeman finished 9th in the NL MVP race). Looking at Olson’s spray chart from last season there’s also reason to believe that he could be even more productive now that he doesn’t play half of his games at cavernous Oakland Colosseum; he should create many souvenir opportunities for ChopHouse guests at Truist Park.
Olson turns 28 years old in two weeks and is under team control for 2022 and 2023 under the arbitration system. While he is likely to receive healthy salaries both seasons, they won’t be anywhere near the ~$30 million per season Freeman is likely to command from whomever he signs with. The Braves should use this difference to improve other aspects of the club — as it stands, the outfield, starting rotation, right-side of the bullpen, and bench could all use upgrades that range from vital to slight.
Finally, Olson is a local kid. He was born in Atlanta and went to high school in Lilburn, GA’s Parkview High School, also the alma mater of former Braves outfielder and current broadcaster Jeff Francoeur. In his instant-reaction interview at Oakland’s spring training facility, while he described being traded as “bittersweet”, he couldn’t repress a smile when talking about being traded to the “World Series champs, my hometown”.
In short, Atlanta replaced Freddie Freeman with a player who looks suspiciously like a younger Freddie Freeman, and saved money to divert to other needs while doing it. If the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Matt Olson, their fans would already be lining up for World Series tickets.
Outgoing: Cristian Pache, Shea Langeliers, Ryan Cusick, and Joey Estes
Oof. The problem with trading for a star player of course is having to give up quality and/or quantity in return, and the Braves dipped into their rapidly thinning farm system to do both.
While many Braves fans may have soured on 23-year-old centerfielder Cristian Pache after a ugly, abortive start to the 2021 season that saw him hit only .111/.152/.206 in 68 plate appearances after hamstring and groin injuries, most prospect watchers still had the defensive savant comfortably on their Top 100 prospect lists. Pache is on track to be a valuable major league centerfielder, not just for his stellar glove but also for his sneaky power and speed. He will eventually claim the cavernous center field at Oakland Colosseum. Pache came in at #2 in the recent OFR Top Prospect List.
Catcher Shea Langeliers has been the highest draft pick signed by Atlanta in the Alex Anthopoulos era, taken with the 9th-pick overall in 2018. Langeliers has only enhanced his value since then, producing a mammoth power season in 2021 with the AA Mississippi Braves. Defensively he is already major league caliber. Interestingly, Oakland already has a solid major league catcher in Sean Murphy and their top prospect is 2020 first-rounder Tyler Soderstrom, who will start in high-A or AA in 2022. Langeliers was our #3 rated prospect.
The Braves most recent 1st-round pick was Wake Forest’s Ryan Cusick, and he departs the organization after 16.1 impressive innings at low-A Augusta, striking out 34. Cusick simply put has electric stuff that could make him an eventual major league starter, or a major league reliever in a shorter time frame. Cusick was our #9 rated prospect.
Last but not least is right-hander Joey Estes. As a 19-year-old for low-A Augusta, Estes lead his league in ERA (2.91), strikeouts (127), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.38), lowest opponent’s batting average (.181), and WHIP (0.96) while finishing second in the league in innings pitched (99). He is far from a finished product but he’s off to a great start after being a 16th-round pick in 2019. Estes was our #14 rated prospect.
Put all together this is the most significant prospects-for-stars trade since former GM Frank Wren’s trade of Nick Ahmed, Randall Delgado, Brandon Drury, Zeke Spruill (and major-leaguer Martin Prado) to Arizona for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson. In reality, this package dwarfs that in shear star prospects; the only semi-recent Braves trade that comes close is the ill-fated Mark Texieria 2007 trade that saw Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Beau Jones go to Texas — and all but Jones turn into quality major-leaguers for a Rangers team that had back-to-back World Series appearances in part thanks to the trade.
When Alex Anthopoulos was asked how hard this trade was, he indicated it was his hardest, and it wasn’t only because of the first base changing-of-the guard.
Moving On: Freddie Freeman
To put it bluntly Freddie Freeman has been the best first baseman in Braves franchise history which stretches back to 1876. Since the retirement of Chipper Jones after the 2012 season, he has been the de facto Face of the Franchise, and over the last several years the team has seen him grow into a clubhouse leader and an important mentor for the slew of young position players that have formed the core of the NL East-pennant winning teams of the last four years.
Freeman was the player that bridged the gap from the contending but ultimately disappointing teams of the first half of his career and the championship teams of now. In between he had to endure a bitter rebuild that saw his best friend and 2007 draftmate Jason Heyward traded from the team followed by 95, 93, and 90-loss seasons. He was the player that then-GM John Coppolella pledged to anxious fans that he would not trade, famously saying “I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman” in 2015.
For many young Braves fans, Freeman would be to them what Dale Murphy would be to fans of my age, or Chipper Jones to fans now in their 30s and early 40s. The guy whose trading card you hoped to get, whose batting stance you tried to emulate.
Freeman of course isn’t the first Braves star to end up going to another team. Every single player with a retired number with the Braves, including the legendary Hank Aaron, ended up their careers on a team other than the Braves, the exception being the aforementioned Chipper Jones, whose mentorship of Freeman over the years gave rise to the hope that Freeman was following Jones’s footsteps and would be a lifetime Brave.
For most of the last two seasons, it seemed inevitable that the team and its star first baseman would find an accord. Anthopoulos repeatedly assured anyone who would listen that the team wanted Freeman, and Freeman assured everyone that he wanted to be back. But then the sides couldn’t work out an extension after the 2019 season. Or after his MVP 2020 season. Or in the brief time before he could declare free agency in 2021. Even after Freeman declared free agency, the smart money around baseball would be that Freeman would return to the fold.
But the two sides simply couldn’t connect. No one on the outside knows the full story, and I am not going to speculate what happened. In his press conference on Monday, a clearly emotional Alex Anthopoulos couldn’t comment on Freeman because of rules that govern front office professionals discussing free agents. Perhaps we’ll hear what happened once Freeman signs with another team. Perhaps we’ll never know. In the end, Anthopoulos felt like he couldn’t wait any longer to move to improve the team as spring training belatedly got underway, and that certainly seems plausible. Maybe without the lockout this could have been hammered out, but the reality is that Atlanta must move quickly to shore up multiple parts of the roster if they want a chance to successfully defend their championship.
What is known is that it takes two sides to make an agreement. We know the Braves made offers to retain Freeman, and Freeman never heard one that enticed him enough to stay. The interest was clearly there, but interest wasn’t enough in this case. Once again, fans are reminded that pro ball is a business. Freeman has earned his right to listen to other teams. The Braves have the right to move on from Freeman when they feel its the best path for the club.
It’s cold comfort for the many, many Freddie fans in Braves Nation, but it is the truth.
Final Thoughts
Monday may have been the strangest day in my decades of Braves fandom. The reactions from other fans are all over the place, from anger at Anthopoulos, or owner Liberty Media, or to Freeman himself. Some are elated — the team won’t be yoked by a huge contract to an aging player, and they deftly replaced him with a younger player approximately as good and possibly better. Some prospect-watchers are aghast at the price of the trade.
Many fans seem to be wistful. It’s a new chapter of an old story, a favored player leaves the team, turn the page.
Of course, it’s possible to be sad at the departure of Freeman, upset that the team didn’t extend him prior to his free agency, happy that the team acquired Matt Olson, and also fret about the lost prospects as well. I know, because I am doing all of those things.
A true analysis of this trade though really can’t be made yet. Atlanta must address the outfield. With Ronald Acuña Jr. not expected back until May and Cristian Pache now traded, the outfield as it stands would seem to be Adam Duvall, Guillermo Heredia, and Marcell Ozuna… not exactly a group to inspire. Prospects Michael Harris (#1) and Drew Waters (now #2) are in big-league camp but would be unlikely to be contributors at the major league level early on. The Braves must get a quality outfielder so that they could hopefully move Ozuna to the designated hitter role and be good enough to hold the positions down until Acuña’s return.
The rotation could also use another veteran arm, especially with the shortened spring training. Shortly after the lockout, word was that the Braves made a significant push to acquire free agent Justin Verlander, who ultimately decided to take a lucrative deal to return to Houston. It does indicate the Braves have the capability to make more than one big-ticket deal. Veteran free agent Zach Grienke could be a fit, or maybe the Braves dip back to the trade well and look at some of the teams tearing down now… perhaps Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo or even going back to Oakland to make a play for Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea.
If the Braves shore up these areas, the Braves could look quite good heading into the season, able to go toe-to-toe with the reinforced New York Mets, the young and hungry Miami Marlins, and the restructring Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals in the NL East.
OK Braves fans, how are you feeling about the Matt Olson trade?
— Outfield Fly Rule (@OFRSports) March 14, 2022
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