Braves 2022 Draft Analysis: Day One

Atlanta made draft headlines last Monday by trading three prospects to Kansas City for their competitive balance round-A pick, the 35th overall. Maybe more important than the pick itself, Atlanta got the $2.4 million slot value associated with the pick, pushing their total allowance to $10,224,300, the ninth highest in the draft.

This allowed the Braves more flexibility to perhaps persuade a top 10 talent to slide down to them at #20, or perhaps go after young talent on Day 3 of the draft, similarly to their 2019 draft when they were able to take prep ballplayers like Vaughn Grissom, Joey Estes, Makhi Backstrom, Tyler Owens, and Kadon Morton for over-slot bonuses.

The second team to shake the draft was the Texas Rangers, who shocked the draft by selecting right-hander Kumar Rocker with the third pick, followed by several teams clearly going the underslot/deeper draft strategy that allowed significant talent to drop down the draft board. The Braves however left the more-touted names undrafted and executed a plan to bring young pitching talent into the organization.

Other Entries In This Series:

Day Two (Rounds 3-10)
Day Three (Rounds 11-20)

 

First Round

Owen Murphy, RHP/3B
Age: 18
School: Riverside Brookfield HS
Hometown: Riverside, IL

With the 20th pick, Atlanta selected a first-round prep pitcher for the first time since 2018 (Carter Stewart), 2022 Illinois Gatorade Player of the Year Owen Murphy.

The 6′-1″, 190-pound righty pitched to a 0.12 ERA his senior year, only allowing 14 baserunners in 58 innings. He also hit .550 with 18 home runs and 75 RBI while playing shortstop and third base, and while he wants to continue being a two-way player, the Braves see him as a pitcher only. Murphy has thrown five pitches, but the top selection is a mid-90s four seam fastball that shows some explosiveness up in the zone. He also throws a slider with some bite, a solid-average curve, and developing cutter and change-up. Most impressive however is his overall command and a mechanically clean delivery that helps offset his lack of size.

Murphy was projected by most pundits to go in the 40-50 range, though the talent level in this section of the draft is relatively flat. Either the Braves have a really good read on him, they have the outlines of a deal that fits their overall plans, or both. That said, with a commitment to Notre Dame in Murphy’s back pocket, I wouldn’t expect too much of a bargain for Atlanta here.

Andy’s Thoughts: Several top 10-rated talents had fallen and it looked like perhaps one of Dylan Lesko (Padres), Justin Crawford (Phillies), or Cam Collier (Reds) could fall to Atlanta. That didn’t happen, and the Braves pounced on Murphy. At 19 years old, there doesn’t seem to be too much projection for Murphy to get bigger so my main concern is how he will take the rigors of a full professional season. That said, the shape of his pitches looks very advanced for a high schooler and I can’t help but think of Mike Soroka’s early looks.

 

Ian Ritchie Jr. (“J.R.”)
Age: 19
School: Bainbridge HS
Hometown: Bainbridge Island, WA

The 35th pick went to J.R. Ritchie, another prep right-hander and another Gatorade Player of the Year, this time from the state of Washington, the second cold-weather high school pitcher taken in two picks.

Ritchie is also the second somewhat undersized righty the Braves select at 6′-2″ and 185 pounds, and the second with a relatively complete repertoire and solid mechanics at a young age. Ritchie has a low-90s fastball that has been clocked in the high 90s in spurts. He also has a slider with good shape and a solid change-up. He has thrown all three pitches with good control and feel to pitch.

Andy’s Thoughts: Well, there’s definitely a theme to the first round for Atlanta. The last time the Atlanta went this heavy early for prep pitching was 2016 when the Braves took Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz in the first round, Kyle Muller in the second, and Bryse Wilson in the fourth. Due to the more recent focus on college players along with international sanctions, young pitching has been a weak point in the farm system the last several years. Like Anderson, both Murphy and Ritchie are cold-weather arms that shouldn’t have the same wear-and-tear as some prep stand-outs, but both come into the organization mechanically sound and with good control.

 

Second Round

RHP Cole Phillips
Age: 19
School: Boerne HS
Hometown: Boerne, TX

Atlanta used the 57th pick to select yet another prep right-hander, this time with potentially the highest ceiling of the top three. Cole Phillips was considered by evaluators as one of the top high school talents in this year’s draft, a potential first round talent, but he was one of the many pitchers that went down this spring with a torn UCL and he had Tommy John surgery in April.

Phillips has a 6′-3″, 198 pound frame that looks to be more projectable than the first two pitchers taken. Before he blew out his UCL, Phillips had taken a step up in his senior year with his fastball velocity, moving from 93-95 to sitting in the 95-98 range, hitting 100 mph. That extra velocity made his mid-80s slider more effective. He has a rudimentary change-up as a third pitch. Like nearly every Braves pitching prospect he shows good athleticism, and like Murphy and Ritchie he was also a stand-out hitter in high school. Also like Murphy and Ritchie, Phillips demonstrated better control and feel for pitching than typical for fire-throwing high schoolers.

Andy’s Thoughts: This pick made was what an interesting first day of the draft into an exciting one. The Braves missed out on talented but injured high schooler Dylan Lesko in the first round, but nab similar upside in the second round. The Braves have not been afraid of adding pitchers to the organization coming back from Tommy John at least since 2015 when they traded for Max Fried all the way up to drafting Spencer Strider in 2020 and Spencer Schwellenbach in 2021.

 

RHP Blake Burkhalter
Age: 21
School: Auburn University
Hometown: Dothan, AL

To wrap up Day 1, the Braves used the comp pick acquired when Freddie Freeman signed with Los Angeles to take Auburn closer Blake Burkhalter, breaking up the streak of high schoolers but keeping Atlanta 4-for-4 on the day in right-handed pitchers.

Burkhalter racked up 16 saves in 30 appearances in 2022, his junior season, with a 3.69 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 46 innings against only 7 walks. Burkhalter worked under the tutelage of Auburn pitching coach Tim Hudson, who wasn’t an awful right-hander himself.

The 6′-0″, 204 pound Alabaman has a 4-seam fastball that sits 93-95 but has been clocked as high as 98. He works up in the zone with the fastball but his best pitch is a cutter that he developed this season which he can run to either side of the zone in the low-90s. He also has a developing change-up to help against left-handers who get a better look at the cutter. While Burkhalter never started a game in college, the Braves have indicated they will pitch him as a starter as a pro, at least to begin.

Andy’s Thoughts: While one of the better reliever prospects in the draft, this is the first pick that seems certain to have been made with an eye to conserving the draft pool; both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline projected Burkhalter in the 200s of draft selections. Whether this is because one or more of the top three picks will require an over-slot bonus or if the savings will be moved down the draft remains to be seen.

Come back tomorrow for Day Two.

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