Outfield Fly Rule

NLDS Game 4 Preview: Five Things

October 7, 2019 Andy Harris Atlanta Braves 0

Dansby Swanson is congratulated by his teammates in the dugout after hitting an RBI double and scoring the go-ahead run in game three of the NLDS. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Game 1: St. Louis 7, Atlanta 6
Game 2: Atlanta 3, St. Louis 0
Game 3: Atlanta 3, St. Louis 1
Game 4: Atlanta at St. Louis, Monday, 3:07 PM
Game 5*: St. Louis at Atlanta, Wednesday, Time TBD

*if necessary

When last we saw our intrepid baseball team, they were scoring 3 runs in 9th inning off Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez to win Atlanta’s first come-from-behind win since 1995.

From Sunday’s 5 Things we saw:

  • Wainwright’s Guile: For almost 8 innings, Adam Wainwright put on a clinic against Atlanta, dazzling with a curveball that seems to always find the perfect spot. If that was his last Cardinals start, he can hold his head high.
  • Soroka’s Preternatural Resolve: First playoff game? No problem for Soroka, who pitched with ice in his veins for 7 2-hit innings, including retiring 17 Cardinals in a row at one point. Taking the fan hat off for a minute, just from a pure baseball point of view it was fantastic watching two artists, one at the start of his career and one near the end, put up that kind of performance on that kind of stage.
  • Ozuna’s Timing:The one hitter in the line-up that had success against Soroka was Ozuna. In the second, he inside-outed a high fastball opposite field for a double, moved to third on a groundball, and scored the Cardinals only run on a sac fly. Ozuna got the other hit against Soroka in the 7th, a hard single that was one of the few barreled balls against the righty. But with the game on the line in the 9th against Mark Melancon, the Braves closer finally got him, eschewing the curveball and getting a huge strikeout on a cutter.
  • Snitker’s Bullpen Options: I didn’t think he’d turn to Max Fried for a third straight game, but Snitker did. Fried finally looked human, walking two men before getting Paul DeJong to fly out. Snitker navigated the 8th using Fried, Darren O’Day, and Sean Newcomb to get one out apiece and surviving the inning unscathed despite the two walks and a Jose Martinez single off O’Day. The key play of the inning was O’Day catching Harrison Bader running too soon from second base, hitting Josh Donaldson in stride to nail Bader in front of the third base bag.
  • Swanson’s Hands: As predicted, Swanson had a busy day at shortstop, including starting consecutive 6-3 plays in the fourth to account for all 3 outs. Actually, one of those was a 1-6-3 play after Soroka deflected the ball. So, how about those hands?

Here’s today’s 5 Things:

Keuchel’s Rubber Arm

Dallas Keuchel will be getting the start today on three days rest. This will be the first time in his major league career, in either the regular season or postseason, that he has started on 3 days rest. He did appear in a relief role on two days rest in the 2015 ALDS for the Astros (and gave up three runs in a deciding Game 5 loss to the Kansas City Royals).

It’s not realistic to expect Keuchel to go deep into this game, but the Braves don’t necessarily need him too. Other than Fried and Melancon, the bullpen is fresh and should be able to piece this game together. What the Braves need from Keuchel is to get through the line-up a couple times and keep the score close.

Acuña’s Anger

Will all due respect to the late Bill Bixby, but we like Ronald Acuña Jr. when he’s angry. Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez told the press after Game 1 that he felt that Acuña “disrespected” the veteran pitcher during his home run trot in the 9th inning. After buzzing him close in Game 3 and saying something to the young slugger for a ball four, Acuña looked ready to rumble. Amazingly, Martinez did this after surrendering a 1-0 lead. We’ve seen what Acuña does to teams that anger him, and it’s usually good for the Braves side of the scoreboard.

Hudson’s Sharpness

In contrast to Keuchel’s rush back to action, Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson has had 9 days of rest since his last start, where he shut out the Cubs over 5 innings and struck out 10. In many ways, Hudson is like a younger version of Keuchel, a sinker/slider pitcher who gets a ton of groundballs. In fact, this season he lead all qualifying starters in groundball percentage at 56.9% (Keuchel was at 60.1%, but did not have enough innings to qualify).

The question will be if the long lay-off will have an effect on Hudson’s sharpness. With that much rest, Hudson’s slider may be a little too strong, and end up straight and in the strike zone. Hudson also has the highest walk rate of any qualified pitcher, and the Braves’ hitters should do what they do best — work the count and look for a mistake.

Martinez’s Availability

To say Carlos Martinez has had a tough postseason so far would be an understatement. Handed a 7-3 lead in Game 1, Martinez surrendered home runs to Acuña and Freddie Freeman and came within a whisker of putting Ozzie Albies on base ahead of Freeman when replay didn’t overrule a bang-bang play at first. On Sunday Martinez seemed to get thrown off by Billy Hamilton at third base and his own grudge against Acuña. Manager Mike Shildt publicly gave Martinez a vote of confidence after the game and said he’d go to him again in late innings in today’s match.

We’ll see.

Markakis’s Big Moment

Nick Markakis has only had two hits this series, but the Cardinals have done a good job overall against the middle of the Braves line-up this series. What has been striking about Markakis however is that he seems to be actually pressing at the plate. After getting caught looking at a Carlos Martinez fastball to end Game 1, Martinez has been swinging early and often and has an uncharacteristic 4 strikeouts against no walks.

Markakis had some postseason heroics for Baltimore earlier in this decade. The Braves don’t need a hero per se, but they do need the Nick Markakis that makes hitters work and puts up “professional at-bats” to join the game. Markakis is 3-for-4 against Dakota Hudson in his career with two doubles.

 

 

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