Outfield Fly Rule

NLDS Game 5 Preview: Five Things

October 9, 2019 Andy Harris Atlanta Braves 0

RHP Mark Melancon reacts after he struck out Cardinals 2B Kolten Wong to end Game 2 of the NLDS at SunTrust Park. (Hyosub Shin/AJC.com)

Game 1: St. Louis 7, Atlanta 6
Game 2: Atlanta 3, St. Louis 0
Game 3: Atlanta 3, St. Louis 1
Game 4: St. Louis 5, Atlanta 4 (10)
Game 5: St. Louis at Atlanta, Wednesday, 5:02 PM

When last we saw our intrepid baseball team, the offense went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position, allowing the Cardinals to climb back from a 4-3 deficit in the 9th against Shane Greene and then win it in the 10th against Julio Teheran in Game 4 on Monday.
From Monday’s 5 Things we saw:
  • Keuchel’s Rubber Arm: It turned out Dallas Keuchel’s arm was only flesh and bone. Keuchel struggled with his command on 3-days rest, leaving pitches up and over the plate for Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna (twice) to barrel up and launch. While Braves was able to recover and take the lead in the middle innings, Keuchel was not able to turn the Cardinals line-up over even twice.
  • Acuña’s Anger: Anger or not, Ronald Acuña has been the Braves most potent bat this series, and on Monday he went 4-for-5 with a double and a triple, with the double coming off Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez.
  • Hudson’s Sharpness: Dakota Hudson wasn’t particularly sharp, and he grooved a fastball to Ozzie Albies that went a long way. However the Braves approach to attack him early in the count seemed to play into his hands and the league leader in walks only allowed two free passes.
  • Martinez’s Availability: Even after toiling in Game 3, Martinez pitched and had a relatively drama-free 16-pitch 9th inning that kept the score tied. Acuña hit a ground-rule double to start the inning but was left stranded.
  • Markakis’s Big Moment: It’s still in the future, if it comes at all. Markakis did get on base twice with a base hit and a walk. In perhaps a sign that he’s starting to come around, he did barrel a ball against Miles Mikolas that was caught at the warning track.

Here’s today’s 5 Things:

Flaherty’s Slider

For Game 2 I identified Flaherty’s four-seam fastball as the key pitch for him to be successful. As it turns out, the fastball got him in trouble, but the Braves did poorly against his slider — in fact, the offense as a whole has generally done poorly against most Cardinal breaking pitches. Expect Flaherty to learn from this and double-down on slider usage, and maybe mix in more of the curveball, which he used almost exclusively against Ozzie Albies in Game 2.

Atlanta’s Best Pitchers

Foltynewicz. Fried. Soroka. Melancon. These would be my guess as to the Braves most likely to be seen on the mound today. For Soroka this would be a brand new assignment, holding down an inning in relief. For Melancon and his catcher, they have to recognize that the Cardinals have been hitting his best pitch, the curveball. Melancon countered in Game 3 with the cutter and had success. Soroka, Fried, and Melancon all last pitched on Sunday.

Joyce’s Pinch Hitting

Matt Joyce was on fire down the stretch while getting extended playing time due to the injury to Ender Inciarte and ineffectiveness from Austin Riley. He’s been cold this post-season however and today finds himself bench in favor of Adam Duvall. This doesn’t mean Joyce won’t be a factor — in fact, it’s now more likely that he will bat in a key moment of the game.

Foltynewicz’s Zen (Part Deux)

We all saw Foltynewicz in Game 2 level up in mound maturity and effectiveness. But that wasn’t a win-or-die game. Perhaps some good news: Tom Hallion will be the home plate umpire for today’s game, and Folty has only allowed 1 ER in 14.2 innings over two starts with Hallion calling balls and strikes.

Freeman’s Funk

Freddie Freeman insists that his elbow feels fine and that his three game funk is just a typical baseball thing that has come at a bad time. That same funk seems to have hit Josh Donaldson, Matt Joyce, Brian McCann, and Nick Markakis as well, but only Freeman has been recently afflicted with bone spurs that he indicated was causing discomfort when trying to extend his elbow.

I have no reason not to take Freeman at his word, and he has seemed to have no problems extending his elbow this series. But with that is the expectation that the Braves best hitter will make his presence felt in this match-up. It looked like at least in Game 3 that he was pressing trying to make something happen.

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