Welcome to the fourth annual OFR prospect list! This year we return with another 50 prospects. As with last year, I will be joined this year by Sunday Farm Report co-writer and OFR Farm Report Podcast co-host Matt Chrietzberg.
This portion of the list is a mish-mash of relievers with major-league upside, some talented teenagers, and some power hitters looking to make a move back to higher parts of the list.
Also in this series:
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #40-31
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #30-21
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #20-11
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #10-1
50. Jared Johnson, RHP
Age: 19 | Throws: R
3.52 ERA | 2.72 FIP | 6 G, 6 GS | 15.1 IP | 2.35 BB/9 | 7.04 K/9 (Rk GCL)
Current Assignment: Rk GCL
Acquired: Drafted, 14th Round – 2019
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
Johnson had zero recruiting buzz pitching at tiny Smithville High School in rural eastern Mississippi, but he got noticed his senior year when he started throwing into the high-90s in games. Within a few weeks he was featured in Baseball America and the word was out. The Braves ended up snagging him in the 14th round of the draft and signing over $100,000 overslot to get him to forgo his Mississippi State commitment.
Johnson has worked hard to make himself a prospect, bringing mid-90s velocity into his starts to go along with a developing hard slider. With a 6’2″, 225 pound frame, Johnson has the physical attributes to be a workhorse pitcher, either in a rotation if he can develop a third pitch or in a bullpen if not.
Where Johnson is placed in 2020 will largely depend on his progress in instructionals and spring training, with the most likely destination extended spring training until the short season leagues begin, but if the Braves like what they see from him early on, we have seen the team unafraid to push talented prep draftees to Rome in their first full season. -AH
49. Braxton Davidson, 1B
Age: 23 | Bats: L
.171/.281/.365 | 87 wRC+ | 20 HR | 2 SB | 12.1% BB | 44.3% K (2018 A+)
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2014
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
Remember Braxton Davidson? Many casual observers of the Braves farm system may not realize he’s still with the organization. The reason for that is because the 2014 first-round draft pick missed the entire 2019 season due to a foot injury he suffered while rounding the bases after hitting a 10th-inning walk-off home run to clinch the Arizona Fall League championship for the Peoria Javelinas. After two foot surgeries, the most recent in July, Davidson should return at full strength to start 2020, presumably at Mississippi.
Davidson, a true three-outcome player, had nearly 63% of his plate appearances end in a home run, walk or strikeout during a 2018 season where he hit a career-high 20 home runs but also struck out an astounding 213 times. However, he went on a big run towards the end of the AFL season to lead the league with six home runs and finish with an .885 OPS. He’ll get a shot to prove that his AFL showing wasn’t a fluke, but with sluggers like Drew Lugbauer and Bryce Ball waiting in the wings, Davidson will need to get off to a good start in 2020. -MC
48. Brandol Mezquita, OF
Age: 18 | Bats: R
.246/.350/.280 | 93 wRC+ | 1 HR | 6 SB | 12.1% BB | 28.6% K (Rk GCL)
Current Assignment: Rk GCL
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2017/18
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
During the Atlanta Braves international free agent signings scandal of 2017 in which general manager John Coppolella was banned from baseball for life, they were stripped of twelve minor-league players, eleven of whom eventually signed with other teams. Two chose to re-sign with the Braves, and the only one that remains is Brandol Mezquita.
Mezquita, a 6-0, 170 lb Dominican outfielder who just turned eighteen in July, spent 2019 with the GCL Braves after playing for the DSL squad in 2018. Not much stood out about his performance this season but he did walk at a 12% clip to help him to a .350 OBP and he stole six bases in eight attempts. He’ll most likely continue to play in short-season ball for the 2020 season for either the GCL squad or in Danville.
Mezquita probably isn’t the 49th best player in the Braves’ minor-league system but he’s a player worth rooting for to succeed if one wishes to see the Braves stick it to MLB a bit for punishing the Braves for what many other MLB teams do in signing international free agents. Ideally he is a lead-off type hitter, getting on base by hook-or-crook and using his speed. Relatively undersized, there may be some projection left in his body, so it’s not crazy to think he may develop power as he matures. -MC
47. Griffin Benson, 1B
Age: 22 | Bats: S
.208/.318/.392 | 110 wRC+ | 13 HR | 1 SB | 11.2% BB | 33.6% K (A)
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Drafted, 23rd Round – 2016
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
Benson has been a long-term project for Braves development that may be starting to pay some dividends. Benson was an extremely raw talent out of Aledo High School, and with the exception of an 8-game try-out for Rome at the start of the 2018 season he had played three years in the rookie leagues, working on honing his swing and trying to get his plus raw power to play into games.
That development investment started to pay off in 2019 as Benson started the season again with Rome, but this time he was able to stick. While never really getting on a big offensive roll, Benson did occasionally get on power surges where seemly everything he could make contact with would go for extra bases. Benson’s 39 extra base hits lead the Rome Braves and was second only to Florida’s Drew Lugbauer among A-ball Braves.
The main issue with Benson is his plate discipline; Benson is a free-swinger who gets into bad counts often, and he doesn’t yet have the bat control to be a good two-strikes hitter. He can hammer mistakes however, and he likes to turn on inside pitches, especially as a left-handed hitter. Benson’s OPS was .245 points lower as a right-handed hitter, and only 1 of his 13 homers in 2019 came off a left-handed pitcher. Benson plays a fine first base, and he has surprisingly good range and hands for a big man.
Benson probably played well enough to earn himself a move up to Florida, but a move up may depend on where Atlanta decides to place Bryce Ball and Drew Lugbauer. I would judge it as a 50/50 shot that he may simply return to Rome to start the 2020 season. -AH
46. Stephen Paolini, OF
Age: 19 | Bats: L
.192/.315/.242 | 73 wRC+ | 0 HR | 2 SB | 15.4% BB | 25.9% K (Rk GCL)
Current Assignment: Rk GCL
Acquired: Drafted, 5th Round – 2019
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
Paolini is an athletic but raw high school 2019 draft pick out of under-scouted New England. Unlike most of the prep stars taken by the Braves in the draft, Atlanta reached up and snagged Paolini in the 5th round rather than sliding him past the 10th, indicating that they were at least somewhat concerned that another team my poach him with an earlier pick.
Also like several of his draftmates, Paolini was a little overwhelmed in his first exposure to professional ball fresh out of high school. Braves player development will work with him on his pitch recognition skills. He shows a willingness to take a walk, and while he has yet to hit his first pro home run he has good body projection to add power. If all goes well, he should be a power/speed offensive player with the skill to stick in centerfield.
Paolini is likely ticketed for a return trip to the GCL, but could be assigned to Danville if he shows progress in extended spring training. -AH
45. Jefrey Ramos, OF
Age: 21 | Bats: R
.241/.291/.352 | 92 wRC+ | 9 HR | 1 SB | 6.0% BB | 19.9% K (A+)
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2016/17
Prior Year Ranking: 24
Ramos was one of the few international signings from the 2016 period not to have been emancipated by MLB as punishment for the Braves violations of signing rules, and after a strong 2017 season in the rookie leagues there was some hope that the Braves may have actually kept one of the best of the lot. Two years later and the results have not lived up to those early hopes.
Ramos is an extreme free swinger and with Rome he showed good enough hands and wrists to put the ball in play consistently enough to be an offensive threat, and he was especially good down the stretch, giving hope that he could make that approach work at higher levels. That didn’t really come to pass at the advanced-A level however, which resulted in a bump up in strikeouts and a plummeting OBP as better defenses and shifts kept him off base. Ramos is not a quick runner and is an average defender in left field at best, all which means he needs to consistently put balls over the fence to have value. The better pitching, bigger ballparks, and oppressive humidity of the Florida State League didn’t help Ramos in this either, limiting Ramos to only 9 dingers.
Ramos will only turn 21 in February, so there’s certainly room for further development, but a return to wherever the Florida Fire Frogs will call home in 2020 seems likely and he will absolutely have to either become more selective, start going opposite field more to keep defenses honest, or start destroying baseballs to keep advancing. -AH
44. Darling Florentino, 3B
Age: 18 | Bats: R
.200/.248/.352 | 71 wRC+ | 9 HR | 0 SB | 5.6% BB | 42.8% K (A and Rk GCL)
Current Assignment: Rk GCL
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2017/18
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
One of the more head-scratching moves by the Braves this minor league season was the promotion of two 17-year-olds, third baseman Darling Florentino and shortstop Carlos Paraguate, from deep in the rookie leagues to an Opening Day Rome assignment for 2019. With Paraguate, it could at least be understood even though he was completely over-matched at the plate, he would provide solid defense at the keystone. While Florentino isn’t a butcher at the hot corner however, no one will ever mistake him for Clete Boyer either. He must have had a terrific spring training, because nothing about his pro debut with the GCL Braves screamed quick-mover either.
Yet, there was Florentino, starting for Rome at third nearly every day until an injury sidelined him for nearly the whole month of May. Florentino is listed at 6′-0″ and 210 pounds. Maybe he was at the start of his GCL season, but he looks to have added about four inches in height and another 15 pounds since then. The kid is big and when he gets hold of one it tends to go a long way. A free swinger, even A-ball pitchers quickly found ways to get him out however, as his .198/.239/.310 Rome batting line attests. When short season ball opened up, Florentino found himself quickly back in the GCL, still over a year younger than the average age of the league.
Florentino is a physical specimen on par with any other player in the Braves minor leagues, he doesn’t turn 19 until late May, and he has A-ball experience under his belt. It’s the kind of profile to dream on, though if continued growth causes him to move across the diamond to first base that profile looks a lot worse. -AH
43. Jake Higginbotham, LHP
Age: 24 | Throws: L
3.07 ERA | 3.93 FIP | 33 G, 0 GS | 58.2 IP | 3.99 BB/9 | 9.66 K/9 (A)
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Drafted, 11th Round – 2018
Prior Year Ranking: 42
Higginbotham is a Buford, Georgia native who overcame elbow and lat muscle injuries while with Clemson to be an 11th-round pick for Atlanta. A starter with Clemson, Higginbotham has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen for the Braves since his acquisition and that’s clearly where the organization sees his role. He lead Rome in appearances in 2019, acting as a workhorse reliever with 19 appearances of more than three outs. After a somewhat shaky start to the season Higginbotham was brilliant in the second half, pitching to a 1.93 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .225/.291/.297 batting line against after June 1.
A fastball/curveball pitcher in college before his injuries, Higginbotham now throws predominately a heavy two-seam fastball that he uses to tie up lefties inside and fade against right-handers. He complements that with a mid-90s four-seam fastball that he can spot anywhere but likes to elevate to change eye-level. Higginbotham seemed to experiment with several off-speed pitches over the course of the season, with his curveball relegated to more of a change-of-pace offering. His most effective seemed to be a cutter that was effective against right-handers when he could spot it. Higginbotham gets good extension despite a relatively short 6′-0″ height and SAL hitters rarely looked comfortable against him. Overall HIgginbotham was excellent in suppressing power and generated an almost 48% groundball rate thanks to the two-seamer, and he didn’t have significant lefty/righty splits.
A relatively older draft pick in 2018, it wouldn’t be surprising if Higginbotham either had a brief stay in advanced-A ball or was assigned directly to AA Mississippi to start the 2020 season. Either way, Higginbotham will need to pick an off-speed pitch and develop it to advance to the upper minors, but he should continue to have success with his fastball-centric approach for the time being. -AH
42. Drew Lugbauer, 1B/3B
Age: 23 | Bats: L
.194/.254/.361 | 82 wRC+ | 16 HR | 0 SB | 7.3% BB | 34.3% K (A+)
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: Drafted, 11th Round – 2017
Prior Year Ranking: 35
After pounding the Appalachian League after getting drafted in the 11th round out of Michigan, the Braves converted Lugbauer full time to catching in 2018 in Rome. Then after watching a season of lackluster catching and the physical pounding of the position contributing to a disappointing .232/.317/.374 season, the Braves moved Lugbauer right back to first base for his 2019 season in Florida. The position change helped keep Lugbauer in the line-up, but his fared worse at the plate.
Like teammate and fellow heart-of-the-order hitting Jefrey Ramos, Lugbauer had a lot of his offense swallowed up by the larger parks and better defenses of the Florida State League, reflected in his .266 BABiP, the fourth worst in the FSL among qualified players. The power is still there, and he finished third in the league in home runs. Also like Ramos, Lugbauer is an extreme pull hitter, and shifts have not been doing him favors. Lugbauer is an average first baseman and a below average third baseman, though he was solid there in college. If he settled at third base, he would likely make himself into at least an average defensive player.
Going into his 4th pro season, Lugbauer has to find a way to get more balls to drop in, preferably using the whole field more. He has shown good pitch recognition and selectivity in the past, and more of that will help provide positive value. -AH
41. Daysbel Hernandez, RHP
Age: 23 | Throws: R
1.71 ERA | 2.68 FIP | 35 G, 0 GS | 52.2 IP | 3.93 BB/9 | 11.96 K/9 (A+)
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: International Free Agent – 2017
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
Hernandez, a 5’10”, 220 lb Cuban right-hander, spent the entire 2019 season with the Florida Fire Frogs after splitting 2018 between Rome and Florida. He dominated the Florida State League with a 1.71 ERA/2.68 FIP/3.01 xFIP, held opponents to a .176 BAA and struck out 31.8% of his opponents while walking 10.5% of them.
Due to his standout season, he was assigned to the Arizona Fall League where he wasn’t as successful as he was in Florida due to control issues. In 11.1 AFL innings, Hernandez gave up ten walks and struck out only six although he still held hitters to a .225 BAA.
Hernandez’s offerings include a mid-to-high-90s fastball to go along with a hard slider. His performance thus far has shown the potential to be a late-innings reliever, which he’ll get to show while starting 2020 at Mississippi while not discounting the possibility of spending some time in Atlanta in the second half of the season if his 2020 performance is anything like 2019’s. -MC
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